Challenge 1 Stats

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Challenge 1 Stats

I've been looking at stats from the first challenge round, there isn't much data to go on so it's all just for fun really.

[Edit: if anybody can help me tidy the messy figures below into html tables that would be appreciated!]

Firstly, it seemed obvious right from the start that the early competitors were disadvantaged by the obstacles not being reset after each race. Four of the first six racers only finished one or zero laps, but one of them didn't leave the start line at all. Swinders however, beat the spread and ran away with the first win in the second race, so congratulations there. Pico HB running at quarter speed was never going to break any records, poor old Dinotoo at some times had 6 obstacles to navigate around, although navigating around didn't seem to be on the agenda much there. ;)

The overall average number of laps completed in the challenge was 3.44 laps per entry (max 5, min 0), the average after the first three races was just 1.83 laps per entry. The highest number of average laps per race was 4.5 which occurred in races 4,5,7 and 9. So there were four teams who were very close to that important 5th lap to claim 2nd place and half points but didn't quite make it and left empty handed.

The accumulated average number of laps completed per car increased after every race, skewed by the early low lap counts. Here are the figures (two cars per race, combined laps):

Race Laps Average Total Laps Average
R1 2 1.0 2 /2 = 1.00
R2 5 2.5 7 /4 = 1.75
R3 4 2.0 11 /6 = 1.83
R4 9 4.5 20 /8 = 2.50
R5 9 4.5 29 /10 = 2.90
R6 8 4.0 37 /12 = 3.08
R7 9 4.5 46 /14 = 3.29
R8 7 3.5 53 /16 = 3.31
R9 9 4.5 62 /18 = 3.44

Interestingly, there was a difference between the number of laps starting from the left lane rather than the right, although this is from a very small dataset so it doesn't prove much (two cars completed zero laps from the left lane). The average laps completed from the left hand starting position was 3.0, from the right hand side this rose to 3.9.

Of course, what really matters isn't laps but competition points! There are a LOT of points available in the challenge rounds this season...
Over the whole season (assuming 18 entries as per round 1) there are 765 points across 39 race/challenges (maybe 761, depending on whether/how points are counted for empty slots in race heats, perhaps we can encourage Arron to drive using the PS3 remote to fill the empty slots?). That is an average of about (deliberately vague due to the empty slots questions) 40 points per competitor, or 20 points per race/challenge.

Each challenge offers 15 points (av 7.5 per entry), each race heat offers 30 points (av 6 per entry). Overall each challenge session offers about 18% (135/765ish) of the available points, each race session offers about 16% (120/765ish). Of the 135 points available during the first challenge round, only 50 points were awarded, not much more than a third (37%). That means more than 10% (85/765ish) of the available points for the whole season were left behind. We might regret that after later rounds!

Of course not every racer can unlock the potential of all the available points, and each session can only yield a maximum 10 points each, giving a maximum points available 60 points per racer across the season. Those who have scored maximum points so far are 16.7% of the way towards entry to the final race, but those of us who scored no points don't worry! We just need to score 20% more than the leaders in the remaining sessions to put ourselves on top. With 50 points still left to be won each, and only currently only 10 points between first and last, the season is still wide open.

Oh and one last thing, when the leaderboard was sent out I think there was a mistake made. As much as we have enjoyed telling people that Pico HB is joint 4th, we should actually be classed as joint 14th. Here's how I think the leaderboard should be listed (eg joint-6th place indicates there are 5 teams ahead):

Official Teams Corrected
1st 10,33,34,75,76 1st
2nd 22,67,72,64,85,103 6th
3rd 98,100 12th
4th 87,101 14th
5th 12,69 16th
6th 105 18th

So is my maths ok? What have I missed? And are there any particular trends that any other teams are watching?

Happy New Year and beware the Hulk in the next round! X

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